SHOCK Poll: “Other” beating Trump and Hillary in Utah

Mitt Romney won the state of Utah in 2012 with 72% of the vote, over President Obama’s 24%, a 48-point landslide margin. It was then surprising when Donald Trump’s campaign trumpeted a poll Tuesday showing him beating Hillary Clinton in the state by…9 points.

Even more shocking than Trump’s 39-point deficit below Romney’s threshold is where the rest of the field stands.

Hillary Clinton has a slight edge over Obama’s 2012 total in the state, 27% to 24%. Combined with Trump’s 36%, that’s only 63% of poll respondents. Where did everyone else go?

There are only two other candidates named in the poll. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson pulls 10% (1.2% in 2012), and Green Party candidate Jill Stein pulls 2% (0.3% in 2012). A whopping 18% prefer another unnamed candidate, and 8% just don’t know.

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In case you’re not familiar with arithmetic, Johnson’s 10, Stein’s 2, Other’s 18, and Shruggie’s 8 all add up to 38%. That’s 2% more than Trump. More accurately, the poll’s top line should read #NeverTrump 38, Trump 36, Clinton 27.

Some of those 18% unnamed and 8% unknown may end up Trump voters by November, but probably not many. Trump and Clinton are both almost universally known. That means it would take a big change for either of them to gain more support than they already have. Third party candidates like Johnson and Stein are much more likely to gain support from those currently aloof voters since they’re much less well known.

While one poll cannot predict an election more than 4 months away, a trend can, and this one isn’t an outlier. Trump’s highest margin in any recent Utah poll is 13, three times less than Romney’s over Obama.

Trump may win Utah, but it probably won’t be with a majority. The last Republican to win the state without a majority was George HW Bush’s 43% in 1992, when Ross Perot won 27%, and Bill Clinton came in third with 24%. The eerie similarities to 1992 are nonstop this year.


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